Should We Be Worried about Bitcoin?
China stimulus, Peter Brandt's warning, Mt Gox, and more!
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Market Moves Unveiled: China’s $70B Power Play, Memecoin Mania, and Peter Brandt's Bold Bitcoin Warning!
Hey there, fellow traders! Welcome to this edition of our newsletter, where we dive deep into the world of trading and investment. Whether you're just starting out or you're a seasoned pro, we've got the insights and strategies you need to navigate the ever-changing financial markets. Let's get into it!
China Stocks Rebound: Discover how China's central bank is shaking things up with a $70 billion securities swap, and what it means for your trading strategy.
Memecoin Supercycle: Dive into the wild world of memecoins and see how they're aligning with Bitcoin in unexpected ways.
Oil and Gold on the Rise: UBS shares insights on why fundamentals are pointing to higher prices for oil and gold.
MicroStrategy's Meteoric Rise: Check out how MicroStrategy's stock is outshining Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and more.
Bitcoin Search Volume Drops: As memecoins surge, Bitcoin's Google search volume hits a yearly low. What's going on?
Bitcoin Warning from Peter Brandt: Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns of a potential 75% decline in Bitcoin. Are you prepared?
Mt. Gox Delays BTC Repayments: Bitcoin ticks up as the bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox delays its repayment deadline. What does this mean for you?
China's $70 Billion Move: Stocks Bounce Back!
Whoa, China's central bank is making waves! They've just kicked off a massive $70 billion securities swap, and it's already shaking up the stock market. This move is like a shot in the arm for China's economy, aiming to boost liquidity and confidence among investors. It's a big deal, and traders everywhere are watching closely.
So, what's the scoop? Well, this swap is all about swapping out short-term securities for longer-term ones. It's a strategy to keep the financial system stable and encourage more investment. With this bold step, China's central bank is showing it's ready to tackle economic challenges head-on. If you're into trading, this is one story you don't wanna miss!
For more on how this could impact your trading game, check out the full article on Nikkei Asia.
Memecoin Madness: The Supercycle Aligns with Bitcoin!
There's a memecoin supercycle happening, and it's aligning with Bitcoin in ways you wouldn't believe. Murad's got the lowdown on how these quirky coins are making waves in the crypto world. It's a wild ride, and you might just want to jump on board!
Memecoins, once seen as a joke, are now serious business. They're riding a wave of popularity, and some experts think this could be a game-changer for Bitcoin. With their growing influence, memecoins are shaking up the crypto landscape, and traders are taking notice.
Curious about how this could impact your crypto strategy? Dive into the full article on Bitcoin Magazine.
Oil and Gold: UBS Predicts a Price Surge!
Hey, investors! UBS is calling it: oil and gold prices are set to climb. With strong fundamentals backing this prediction, it's time to pay attention. These commodities are gearing up for a potential price surge, and you don't want to miss out!
So, what's driving this? Well, UBS points to factors like supply constraints and rising demand. These elements are creating a perfect storm for higher prices. If you're into commodities, this is a trend you should keep an eye on.
Want to know more about how this could affect your portfolio? Check out the full article on Investing.com.
MicroStrategy's Meteoric Rise: Outshining the Giants!
Wow, MicroStrategy is on fire! Their stock has soared a whopping 1620%, leaving Bitcoin, the S&P 500, and even the "Magnificent 7" in the dust. This incredible rise is turning heads in the investment world, and it's all thanks to their bold Bitcoin strategy.
MicroStrategy's big bet on Bitcoin is paying off in spades. By holding a massive amount of Bitcoin, they've positioned themselves as a leader in the crypto space. This move is not just gutsy; it's proving to be wildly successful, making them a standout in the market.
Curious about how MicroStrategy pulled this off? Dive into the full article on Bitcoin.com.
Bitcoin's Search Slump: Memecoins Steal the Spotlight!
Bitcoin's Google search volume has hit a yearly low, and guess who's stealing the show? Yep, it's those quirky memecoins again. They're surging in popularity, and it's got everyone buzzing.
Bitcoin might be the king of crypto, but right now, memecoins are the talk of the town. With their fun and unpredictable nature, they're capturing the imagination of traders and investors alike. It's a fascinating shift, and it could mean big changes in the crypto landscape.
Want to know why memecoins are on the rise and what it means for Bitcoin? Check out the full article on Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin Alert: Peter Brandt Warns of a Potential 75% Drop!
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has issued a stark warning about Bitcoin's future. He suggests a possible 75% decline could be on the horizon after a lengthy period of consolidation. Yikes!
Brandt's insights are based on his extensive experience and analysis of market patterns. While Bitcoin has been holding steady, this potential drop is something traders should keep on their radar. It's a reminder that the crypto market can be as unpredictable as ever.
Curious about what this means for your Bitcoin investments? Dive into the full article on The Daily Hodl.
Bitcoin Bumps Up: Mt. Gox Delays Repayment Again!
There's a bit of a buzz as Bitcoin's price ticks up, thanks to some unexpected news from the past. The infamous Mt. Gox crypto exchange has delayed its long-awaited BTC repayments once more. This delay is stirring up the market, and Bitcoin's price is feeling the effects.
Mt. Gox, once the world's largest Bitcoin exchange, went bankrupt years ago, leaving many investors in the lurch. Now, with the repayment deadline pushed back, traders are speculating on what this means for Bitcoin's future. It's a twist in the tale that has everyone talking.
Want to know more about how this delay could impact your Bitcoin holdings? Check out the full article on The Daily Hodl.
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Stock Indexes
After Monday’s pullback, we got a great week of rally out of the three indexes as I mentioned we were likely to see, with the SPY and DJI printing new ATHs. The NDX rallied into local resistance where it has been consolidating for a few trading days but looks ready to break out higher. We need to see a rally above 20690.97 for the NDX to print a new ATH.
Bitcoin ETF Flows
The Bitcoin ETFs saw strong inflow on Monday and Friday of last week while the middle of the week saw light outflows. That gave us a net inflow of $348.5M for the week. Nothing is keeping this train from moving forward at this time.
Bitcoin
We saw a bounce and then wick lower locally this past week. That wick lower has led to a rally above the wave ((B)) of iv extreme. This adds confidence to the count and suggests that wave v of (i) is in progress. The expectation is to see price rally beyond the R1 pivot, near the ATH, and then pull back into the blue daily pivot area. From there we should then expect to see the rally that breaks out into a new ATH. However, I think the earliest that we would likely see that new ATH would be toward the end of October.
As mentioned previously, price broke out above the wave ((B)) extreme at 61202 on the Bitcoin All Time Index chart which signals that wave ii is likely complete and that wave iii is in progress toward a minimum expected target of 82478. The larger degree wave ((v)) has a target of 93654 based on the height of wave ((iv)).
If this cycle is to end like every cycle before, then we should expect wave ((v)) to overextend much higher. Based on previous cycles, we should also not expect it to end until Q4 of 2025. However, there’s a lot of things that need to happen in the meantime to make that a reality so we will continue to trade the chart as it prints rather than tell it what it needs to do.
You can subscribe to the weekly Bitcoin Miner Stocks Report newsletter where you will get the week’s information and news regarding this sector, commentary, and most importantly updated charts of 15+ public bitcoin mining companies. Subscribers have been able to jump in on some big moves as they were well-positioned before the stocks popped. And as of late they’ve been able to wait for their entry as the miners have corrected more recently. The next issue will go out Monday evening.
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Ethereum ETF Flows
The Ethereum ETFs had an almost flat week. The ETFs had a net inflow of 1.9M. There was just little activity overall with these ETFs, but after the continued outflows that we’ve seen since inception it’s good to celebrate even the small wins like this.
Ethereum
Price is currently up around ~$90 above last week’s close. RSI and Stoch RSI on this weekly chart have a lot of room for price to continue to run higher.
There is no change with the bigger picture as it continues to look like price is printing a diagonal with wave ((iii)) terminating at the cycle high of 4093.88 and wave ((iv)) possibly being complete at 2116.02. Breaking down below that low will keep wave ((iv)) alive with an initial target of the weekly pivot at 1970 or secondary target of 1787. Breaking out above 2820.86 will be the first clue that wave ((iv)) may be complete. Further break out above 3563.02 will make it much more likely.
Wave ((v)) has an expected target of 6160 based on the current height of wave ((iv)).
Gold Futures (GC1!)
Gold broke down out of the triangle and into the daily pivot where it caught a bid and has rallied higher locally over the past couple of trading days. It looks like the triangle was actually smaller and wave B of the correction. We should expect to see price rally toward a target of 2762.90 based on the height of the pullback from September 26th.
The US Dollar Index (DXY)
The DXY rallied further into the ~103.122 target area A rejection from here should have us watching for the DXY to target the 98.39-98.64 range. However, breaking out further has a target of the R3 pivot at 103.500.
Courage in a speculator is merely confidence to act on the decision of his mind.
— Jesse Livermore
Chart of the Week
The ROSE/USD chart looks like is has started its next leg up and has broken back out above the daily pivot so far. This next leg up should have a minimum expected target of 0.15304. That would be a price rally of ~110%.
Price pulled back 50% before printing a doji candle at the swing low and rallying above the daily pivot. Breaking down below that pullback swing low at 0.06249 will invalidate this trade idea and target, likely setting up a downside target of the S1 pivot at 0.5580 instead.
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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter is intended solely for educational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. It does not constitute an investment recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets. Please exercise due diligence and conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.
The Market Breakdown newsletter does not operate as a registered investment advisor. This document is provided purely for informational purposes and does not constitute an offer or invitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. The viewpoints expressed are derived from historical data analysis and are deemed reliable, though their accuracy is not assured. Readers are entirely accountable for any decisions made based on this information.
CFTC RULE 4.41 - These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.