Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 17 September 2025
BNB/USDT hit target. TSLA is less than $10 from it’s secondary target and SOL/USDT is $15 from its target. So there’s a good chance they’ll hit by the end of the week.
The Fed cut the fed-funds target 25 bps to 4.00-4.25% today and framed it as a “risk-management” move. Powell emphasized meeting-by-meeting data dependence while the Fed’s dot-plot and statement left the door open for more cuts later this year. Markets moved fast: mixed equity action, a modest pickup in the dollar and Treasury yields, and crypto bid (BTC ~$116k). Keep position sizes tight into the next data prints.
Macro snapshot
FOMC (Sep 16-17): 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%; committee will “carefully assess incoming data” and continue runoff of SOMA; one dissenter (Miran) preferring a larger cut. Powell called the move risk-management, not a signal for mechanical multi-cut certainty.
Market reaction (same day): Equity indices mixed (tech soft vs. pockets of strength in financials); 10-yr UST moved up modestly into the low-4% area (≈ 4.06-4.09% intraday). USD traded a touch higher after initial weakness. Crypto reacted positively — BTC around ~$116k.
Takeaway: The Fed eased policy today, but Powell’s messaging and the dot-plot left optionality. That produced a “kitchen-sink” reaction where direction will be decided by near-term data and the tone of Fed follow-up comments. Trade with hedges and defined trim rules.
Risk Gauge
VIX: ~15-16 (still low-mid teens; risk of quick spikes on next prints).
DXY (USD): roughly 96.7-97.0 (dollar initially soft, later a small rebound).
10-yr UST: ~4.06%-4.09% (yields ticked up modestly into the close).
BTC (spot): ~$116k (crypto bid after Fed cut; still sensitivity to risk flows).
Read: volatility is contained for now, but positioning is looser. Downside tail risk if any incoming data prints re-harden inflation signals; upside tail if data keep softening and markets price steeper easing.
Rolling Position Status
✅ Equities longs
PYPL, WDFC, CAG, MSM, FLEX (stop at 52), APPL (stop at 209), NFLX, CSCO, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA (TP 1 hit, secondary target at 434, stop at 352), PANW (stop at 175), COIN, ABNB, DDOG (stop at 130), FTNT (setup for 8/16/25), ESTC (stop at 79), AVGO, SNOW, LRCX,
✅ Equity shorts
None
✅ Crypto longs
DYDX/USDT (stop at 0.51), BTC/USD (8/2/25 setup), ETH/USDT, SOL/USDT (stop at 205), ATOM/USDT, ARB/USDT, HNT/USDT
✅ Crypto shorts
None