Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 10 September 2025
BABA and AVAX/USDT hit their respective targets this week. MU has almost reached its target as well. PPI surprised cooler (released this morning), which pushed markets a touch more dovish and tightened the odds of a September cut. That lowers near-term headline risk vs. a hot read, but CPI tomorrow and the coming FOMC keep positioning sensitive. Trade with pre-defined rules, not reaction.
Macro snapshot
PPI (Aug, released Sep 10): unexpected decline −0.1% m/m; PPI y/y ~+2.6% — wholesale prices softened (services down), taking some pressure off the Fed path. Reuters
CPI (Aug) — scheduled tomorrow (Thu Sep 11, 8:30 AM ET): the headline/core prints are the next high-leverage datapoint for Fed pricing and risk assets. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor flow / claims: weekly jobless claims remain elevated vs spring — next release Thu (8:30 AM ET) and will be watched for persistence. YCharts
Takeaway: Today’s PPI softened the narrative and nudged markets dovish, but CPI (tomorrow) and the Sep 16–17 FOMC still control the larger directional risk.
Risk Gauge
VIX: 15 (calm but one strong print could move it quickly).
DXY: 97.8 (dollar slightly softer after PPI).
10-yr UST: 4.05% (yields drifted lower on the PPI print; curve remains sensitive).
BTC funding: ~+0.01% (neutral) neutral to mild long skew; no extreme long bias but watch for a spike after CPI.
Read: PPI eased immediate hawkish pressure and favored risk assets for now, but the CPI → FOMC chain is still the main risk corridor. Keep stops and size discipline.