Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 20 August 2025
Macro snapshot
CPI (Jul — released Aug 12): Headline +0.2% m/m, 2.7% y/y; core CPI +0.3% m/m, 3.1% y/y; cooler headline but stickier core/services.
PPI (Jul — released Aug 14): PPI final demand +0.9% m/m; 3.3% y/y; a materially hotter wholesale read that tightened near-term rate-cut odds.
Labor (Initial claims, week through Aug 9/14): 224k; still consistent with a cooling-but-not-collapsing labor market.
Market take: CPI gave markets some relief, but PPI reminded traders there’s upstream inflation risk. Expect headline-driven chop into Jackson Hole.
Risk Gauge
VIX: 15.69
DXY: 98.27
10-yr UST: 4.29%
BTC funding: ~+0.01% (neutral)
Read: volatility has ticked up, yields are firmer than early week, and the dollar is holding ; a posture that favors disciplined sizing and headline-aware hedges.