Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 16 July 2025
Macro snapshot
PPI (June): Producer Prices were flat month-over-month, 0.0% vs. +0.2% expected, while annual inflation eased to +2.3% y/y, down from 2.7%. Goods rose modestly; services edged down.
Beige Book: Fed's report highlighted tariff-driven input cost increases across all districts. Activity was flat to slightly rising, but the outlook turned “neutral to slightly pessimistic.”
Market Response: Equities finished flat to slightly higher, with cooler PPI data easing fears even as tariff-linked inflation risks lingered. Treasury yields climbed to ~4.55% (+25 bp), and the dollar strengthened (+0.9%, DXY 98.279).
Bottom line: Inflation remains sticky but showing early signs of moderation. The Fed is cautious, guiding into an October-first-cut scenario rather than sooner.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
VIX: 15.95 → 17.00 ▲
DXY: 97.47 → 98.279 ▲
10Y Yield: 4.36% → 4.469% ▲
BTC Funding: +0.001% → +0.001%
Risk Tone: Elevated. Inflation–tariff linkage + steady labor = pressure on yields/dollar and cautious equity positioning ahead of PPI and Beige Book.