Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 3 September 2025
Markets steadied today after mixed data: ISM manufacturing showed continued soft patch in factories, JOLTS signaled a loosening jobs market, and yields pulled back a touch. The tape is calm but headline-sensitive into Thursday/Friday prints.
Macro snapshot
ISM Manufacturing (Aug, released Sep 2): 48.7 — manufacturing remains in modest contraction; new orders improved but production and employment components show weakness. That keeps cyclical risk conditional. Institute for Supply Management
JOLTS (Jul, released Sep 3): Job openings ~7.18M (4.3% rate), down ~176k vs June; a clear downshift in openings that reinforces the softening labor narrative. Bureau of Labor Statistics
PCE (Jul, Aug 29 release): Core PCE ~+2.9% y/y; headline ~+2.6% y/y — still-sticky core services keep the Fed data-dependence story alive. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Takeaway: the recent data mix (manufacturing soft, openings sliding, core PCE steady) shifts the odds toward a more dovish Fed path unless Friday’s payrolls prove materially stronger. Position for possible relief rallies, but define rules. This tape will move fast on any NFP surprise.
Risk Gauge
VIX: 16.35 (low-mid teens; small intraday move lower).
DXY: 98.18 (dollar slightly softer vs. last week).
10-yr UST: 4.219% (yields eased from late-Aug highs into today).
BTC funding: ~+0.01% (neutral) neutral to mild long skew; not yet a leverage warning.
Read: volatility remains tame, but the labor/inflation sequence ahead is high-leverage for yields and the dollar. That argues for selective risk taking with predetermined trim/hedge points.