Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 23 July 2025
Macro snapshot
Existing Home Sales (June) dropped 2.7% to 3.93M annualized, a nine-month low—with median price at $435,300, marking a record high,
This reflects persistently high mortgage rates (~6.8%), cooling affordability but keeping inflation pressure through housing,
The housing drag may dampen Q3 economic activity but slows the Fed's path. Markets expect a first rate cut in September/October, not next month.
Crypto perpetual funding remains moderately positive (BTC ~0.010% 8‑hr); balanced bulls in play, not over-levered.
Bottom line: Housing weakness combined with sticky inflation keeps the Fed cautious, yields elevated, USD firm, but risk assets remain in watch mode.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
VIX: 17.00 → 15.37
DXY: 98.279 → 97.114
10Y Yield: 4.469% → 4.388%
BTC Funding: +0.001% → +0.001%