Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 25 June 2025
Macro snapshot
Vol keeps leaking: the VIX settled at 16.8, its lowest holiday-week close since April. fred.stlouisfed.org
Dollar drifts: the DXY is 96.8, down roughly 0.4 pt in five sessions as traders lean harder into a September cut. investing.com
Rates behave: the 10-yr Treasury trades 4.26%, unchanged from a week ago after another well-bid reopening. fred.stlouisfed.org
Crypto leverage neutral: CoinDesk notes BTC and ETH funding rising back into the +5-7% annualized band (≈ +0.006 % per 8 h), signalling balanced but positive risk. coindesk.com
Read-through: thinner holiday liquidity plus softer vol and dollar favour a mild bid for risk, but Friday’s market holiday and the payrolls print mean position sizes should stay on the small side.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
VIX 16.8 (−0.6)
DXY 96.8 (−0.3)
10-yr 4.26% ( flat )
BTC funding +0.006 % (−0.004)
Lower vol and a weaker dollar keep the bias “up,” yet the absence of depth can exaggerate moves; keep stops tight.