The Market Breakdown

The Market Breakdown

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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops

Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops

Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.

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Christopher Inks
Jul 03, 2025
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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
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MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 25 June 2025



Macro snapshot

  • Vol keeps leaking: the VIX settled at 16.8, its lowest holiday-week close since April. fred.stlouisfed.org

  • Dollar drifts: the DXY is 96.8, down roughly 0.4 pt in five sessions as traders lean harder into a September cut. investing.com

  • Rates behave: the 10-yr Treasury trades 4.26%, unchanged from a week ago after another well-bid reopening. fred.stlouisfed.org

  • Crypto leverage neutral: CoinDesk notes BTC and ETH funding rising back into the +5-7% annualized band (≈ +0.006 % per 8 h), signalling balanced but positive risk. coindesk.com

Read-through: thinner holiday liquidity plus softer vol and dollar favour a mild bid for risk, but Friday’s market holiday and the payrolls print mean position sizes should stay on the small side.


Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)

  • VIX 16.8 (−0.6)

  • DXY 96.8 (−0.3)

  • 10-yr 4.26% ( flat )

  • BTC funding +0.006 % (−0.004)

Lower vol and a weaker dollar keep the bias “up,” yet the absence of depth can exaggerate moves; keep stops tight.


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