Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 6 August 2025
Macro snapshot
July Nonfarm Payrolls (Aug 1, 8:30 AM ET): U.S. added 73K jobs vs. 185K expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%, underscoring softer demand in a high-rate environment.
Weekly Jobless Claims (Aug 2): Initial claims ticked up to 234K (prior 231K); continuing claims at 1.81 M, reflecting gradual labor-market cooling.
ISM Surveys:
Manufacturing PMI (Aug 1) at 48.0, fifth straight contraction month.
Services PMI (Aug 5) at 50.2, barely above the 50-point expansion/contraction threshold.
Treasury & FX:
– 10-yr UST yield held near 4.246%
– DXY at 98.240Crypto Flows: Bitcoin perpetual funding remains neutral (~0.00%), indicating balanced long/short positioning across futures markets.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
Volatility has picked up as markets digest labor-market softness and data slack.
VIX: 16.77
DXY: 98.240
10-yr UST Yield: 4.246%
BTC Funding: Neutral (~0.00%)
Sentiment is defensive: volatility is rising, the dollar is firm, and crypto leverage sits flat ahead of next week’s inflation prints.
