Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 13 August 2025
We had some targets in equities and crypto hit this week. We also have some just about to hit their targets (the DYDEX trade alone is going to lock in a ~50% rally in price at the target which is sitting just overhead). So be sure to check your positions. Overall, we remain profitable on our trading since inception of the Weekend Trade Sheet.
Macro snapshot
CPI (July, released Aug 12): Headline inflation cooled to ~2.7% y/y while core ran ~3.1% y/y; markets leaned dovish as goods stayed tame and services did the lifting. Stocks hit fresh highs, yields slipped, and the dollar softened after the print.
Into PPI: Thursday’s PPI (July) is slated for 8:30 AM ET and will test the CPI “soft-headline/firmer-core” narrative.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
Volatility has picked up as markets digest labor-market softness and data slack.
VIX: 14.49
DXY: 97.786
10-yr UST: 4.236%
BTC funding: ~+0.01% (neutral)
Read: vol easing + softer dollar + lower yields = better tape, but PPI/claims can wobble that quickly.