The Market Breakdown

The Market Breakdown

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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops

Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops

Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.

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Christopher Inks
Jul 31, 2025
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The Market Breakdown
The Market Breakdown
Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
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MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 30 July 2025



Macro snapshot

  • FOMC Decision (July 30, 2:00 PM ET): The Fed held the target range at 4.25%-4.50%, voting 9-2 with two dissenters calling for a cut. Chair Powell emphasized data dependence and gave no explicit rate-cut timing, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” stance.

  • Market Reaction: Equities dipped ~0.4% post-statement; the dollar rallied and Treasuries sold off modestly.

  • Treasury Yields & Dollar:
    – 10-yr UST yield rose to 4.356%
    – DXY strengthened to 99.759

  • Crypto Flows: BTC perpetual funding remains neutral (~0.00%), indicating balanced long/short positioning.


Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)

Volatility has ticked up as markets price in Friday’s payrolls.

  • VIX: 15.48 (↑ from 14.93)

  • DXY: 99.759 (↑ 0.9% WoW)

  • 10-yr UST Yield: 4.356% (↑ ~3 bp WoW)

  • BTC Funding: Neutral (~0.00%)

Sentiment remains cautious. Volatility is rising, yields and USD are firm, and crypto leverage sits flat.


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