Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 30 July 2025
Macro snapshot
FOMC Decision (July 30, 2:00 PM ET): The Fed held the target range at 4.25%-4.50%, voting 9-2 with two dissenters calling for a cut. Chair Powell emphasized data dependence and gave no explicit rate-cut timing, reinforcing a “wait-and-see” stance.
Market Reaction: Equities dipped ~0.4% post-statement; the dollar rallied and Treasuries sold off modestly.
Treasury Yields & Dollar:
– 10-yr UST yield rose to 4.356%
– DXY strengthened to 99.759Crypto Flows: BTC perpetual funding remains neutral (~0.00%), indicating balanced long/short positioning.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
Volatility has ticked up as markets price in Friday’s payrolls.
VIX: 15.48 (↑ from 14.93)
DXY: 99.759 (↑ 0.9% WoW)
10-yr UST Yield: 4.356% (↑ ~3 bp WoW)
BTC Funding: Neutral (~0.00%)
Sentiment remains cautious. Volatility is rising, yields and USD are firm, and crypto leverage sits flat.