Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 27 August 2025
We’re sitting in the calm after Powell’s Jackson Hole tone but ahead of a busy data cluster that can re-price cuts and yields. Some cyclical names and tech continued to bid into earnings season; risk is “on” but headline-sensitive. (See catalyst list below.)
Macro snapshot
Durable goods (Jul): new orders fell 2.8% m/m to $302.8bn, extending June’s weakness. Transportation drove most of the drop while ex-transport rose modestly.
New-home sales (Jul): latest Census release shows the market continuing to adjust, average sales price ~$487,300; activity remains rate-sensitive.
Consumer confidence (Aug, Conference Board): index ~97.4 (down vs. July), signaling modest softening in expectations.
Labor (Initial claims): most recent weekly claims printed 235k (week ending Aug 21), a small softening from prior reads and consistent with cooling but not collapsing labor flow.
Fed narrative: Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks (Aug 22) left the door open to cut optionality; markets have priced more near-term optionality but remain reactive to data.
Takeaway: The data mix is mixed. Activity and housing soft in some series, cost pressures uneven, so positioning should respect headline risk into the PCE / GDP cluster.
Risk Gauge
VIX: 14.85
DXY: 98.08
10-yr UST: 4.230%
BTC funding: ~+0.01% (neutral)
Read: volatility is subdued, yields sit around recent levels, and BTC funding shows a small long bias. That combination supports selective risk taking but makes headlines (PCE, GDP, jobless claims) high-impact.