Mid-Week Risk Check: Fresh Prices, Updated Stops
Condensed pulse on volatility, yields, flows, and positioning—your mid-week reality check.
MID-WEEK RISK CHECK · Wed 9 July 2025
Macro snapshot
Markets remain in summer-drift mode. Today's FOMC minutes acknowledged 'modest further progress' on disinflation but warned it isn't enough for an early cut. While the labor market is still tight, officials also spotted signs of cooling hiring and mixed consumer momentum. Add in tariff-related price risks, and the Committee prefers to wait for a few more benign CPI/PCE prints, leaving September (not July) as the earliest realistic window for the first trim.
VIX broke down to 15.95, its lowest level since March, signaling ultra-complacency in equities-right into a macro event cluster. DXY pulled back slightly to 97.47 after five days of dollar strength, while the 10-year yield climbed as high as 4.36% before retreating slightly-signaling sticky rate pressures.
Bitcoin just cleared $111K with conviction and volume-printing a clean breakout candle above recent range highs. This invalidates the prior "low-vol coil" posture and suggests continuation into the $114K-$117K zone. Spot demand is confirming, and volume is expanding above the 20-day average. Short liquidations likely fueled the initial surge, but follow-through looks sustainable unless risk-off hits hard via macro next week.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is waking up on the monthly chart. ETH/USD at $2,760 now sits just below a key multi-cycle volume shelf. A push through $2,950-$3,000 reopens the move to reclaim the $3.5K-$4K zone. While BTC leads, ETH's broader base structure implies potential outperformance if the rally sustains.
Bottom line: Crypto just flipped from drift to breakout. Treat BTC strength as real unless we see immediate rejection below $108K. ETH is late-cycle but structurally sound-consider rotation strategies accordingly.
Risk Gauge (vs. last Wednesday)
VIX: 16.6 → 15.95 ↓
DXY: 97.25 → 97.47 ▲
10Y Yield: 4.26% → 4.36% ▲
BTC Funding: +0.000% → +0.001% ▲
Lower vol, stronger dollar, and higher yields is not a bullish mix. With CPI and PPI due next week, the current quiet feels more like calm before a directional move, not confirmation of stability.