Forecast: Cut Whispers, Risk Rips, BTC Trips — Market Breakdown #80
Dollar and yields slipped, equities ripped, crypto surged with ETH at new highs.
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Issue #80 – August 22, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Headlines & Hysteria
Wall Street rips on Powell’s ‘could cut’ — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Powell said ‘maybe’ and the market heard ‘marry me.’”
Powell: jobs risk rising, cuts possible — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Central bank independence now sponsored by Noise‑Canceling Headphones.”
Dollar drops as cut odds jump — Reuters
Forked Feed: “DXY tried to be the main character and got edited out of the finale.”
Intuit sinks on soft outlook — Reuters
Forked Feedd: “TurboTaxed the multiple.”
Nvidia halts China‑market H20 chip (regulatory heat) and Meta inks $10B+ Google Cloud deal (AI infra) — Investopedia
Forked Feed: “Geopolitics unplugged one rack; AI plugged in a data center.”
Crypto pops around speech — Barron’s
Forked Feed: “Powell said ‘careful,’ ETH heard ‘cartwheels.’”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Funding balanced, dollar edged up, equities softer: US10Y 4.322 (-0.14%) with DXY 98.668 (+0.05%) while SPY 635.55 (-0.40%), QQQ 563.28 (-0.46%); light de-risking into Powell, not capitulation.
Energy muted: WTI 64.14 (-0.21%) after a quiet session; no spark for inflation beta.
Vol perked: VIX 16.60 (+5.80%) jumped, more hedge demand than panic, but watch for feedback loops.
Crypto split: BTC 112,875 (+0.30%) firm, ETH 4,256 (+0.76%) stronger; BTC.D 59.47 (-0.10%), TOTAL3 +0.43%; selective alt catch-up.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $645.31
QQQ: $571.97
🧭 Risk-On Flows
Equities: SPY +1.54%, QQQ +1.54%; VIX 14.22; classic post‑speech chase.
Crypto: BTC +5.1%, ETH +10.6% ATH; TOTAL3 +4.0%; strong alt participation, ETH leading.
Commodities: WTI +0.42%, Gold 3,371 (+0.98%); no inflation scare.
Bonds & Dollar: US10Y 4.256, DXY 97.732; easing + softer buck supported multiples.
Forked Feed Early Warning: “ETH breaking ATHs while Powell whispers cuts, congrats, you’re trading monetary policy with memes now.”
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $115672
ETH/USD: $4707
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
Dollar Drift, Quality Carry
When yields and DXY fall together and vol softens, capital rotates toward quality duration in equities. But crypto dislocated today: BTC’s drawdown vs. softer dollar = de‑risk within crypto while TradFi adds beta.
Tactile read
If DXY < 98.0 and US10Y < 4.25% with VIX < 15, favor cash‑rich megacap growth; ETH over small‑cap alts.
If DXY > 98.6 or VIX > 16.5, tighten risk across cyclicals and all alts; hold BTC over alts.
If Gold > 3,360 alongside DXY < 97.8, add a measured hedge sleeve; do not chase.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3371
Silver: $38.888
WTI: $64.547
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.256%
30Y: Yield: 4.89%
DXY: 97.732
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 58.63%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $1.06T
• Altseason Index 53/100 (Emerging Rotation)
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 50 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 93 (Bullish)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.680
Layer-1: SOL $197.38 | DOT $4.061 | ATOM $4.713
Layer-2: ARB $0.5776 | OP $0.7699
Memes: DOGE $0.23150 | WIF $0.891 | PEPE 0.00001112
RWA: ONDO $0.9881 | NXRA $0.00943
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Jackson Hole Aftermath Play
Event days distort signals; the tell is the day‑after breadth. If RSP/SPY improves while VIX stays sub‑15, the rally has lungs. If leaders run but equal‑weight bleeds and DXY snaps back, treat today as a relief bounce, not trend.
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📌 Key Takeaways
Powell opened the cut door; stocks sprinted through it.
Dollar and yields faded, greasing multiple expansion.
Crypto rallied: Bitcoin rallied strong and Ethereum printed a new ATH.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY >650 extends impulse; < 638 risks fade.
QQQ > 578 keeps tech bid; < 562 warns rotation.
BTC > 118,800 rebuilds impulse; < 112,000 opens 108k retest.
ETH > 4,820 reignites alts; < 4,420 cools.
Gold > 3,400 strengthens hedge; < 3,320 trims.
WTI > 65.8 relief bounce; < 61.8 extends slump.
DXY > 98.6 tightens risk; < 97.2 loosens.
US10Y > 4.35% pressures multiples; < 4.20% soothes.
VIX > 16.5 reload hedges; < 14.0 stay long.
💬 Final Thought
Relief rallies are auditions, not contracts. If breadth holds and DXY stays soft, keep a quality‑first bias and let winners work. If the dollar snaps back or vol lifts, harvest into strength and wait for the second swing.
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