Tech slips, dollar perks, oil drifts; ETH outshines BTC — Market Breakdown #77
Stocks faded into Jackson Hole, crude sagged, the dollar inched up, and crypto rotated under the surface.
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Daily market intelligence for traders who think in systems, not headlines.
Issue #77 – August 19, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Wall Street falls on Jackson Hole jitters — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Powell hasn’t spoken yet and valuations already practiced fainting.”Nasdaq tumbles as tech takes the blame; poll sees 2025 stalling near 6,300 — Reuters
Forked Feed: “AI met tariffs and did the awkward small talk.”Oil edges lower as markets eye possible Russia–Ukraine peace talks — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Peace premium auditioned; barrels forgot their lines.”Dollar firms as markets digest Ukraine summit — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Greenback did a quiet flex while everyone stared at Wyoming.”Japan startup to issue first yen-pegged stablecoin — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Tourists get sushi, traders get a JPY stable. Everybody eats.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Rates steady, dollar firmer, stocks softer: US10Y 4.312 (~flat) with DXY 98.40 (+0.12%) while SPY 639.81 (-0.54%), QQQ 569.28 (-1.36%); that’s positioning de-risk, not a macro regime change.
Energy eased the inflation pulse: WTI 62.69 (-0.23%) drifted on peace-talk noise, keeping CPI anxiety contained.
Vol crept, not screamed: VIX 15.57 (+3.87%) rose into events; enough to curb dip-chasing, not enough to break trend systems.
Crypto rotated quietly: BTC 113,036 (+0.12%) held, ETH 4,112 (+0.89%) led; BTC.D 59.95 (-0.24%), TOTAL3 +0.54% = selective alt bid, not a full party.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $639.81
QQQ: $569.28
🧭 Risk-On Flows
Capital still hides in quality; energy and small caps lag; ETH > BTC for the day.
Equities: SPY -0.54%, QQQ -1.36%; VIX 15.57 (+3.9%); risk trimmed into Powell.
Crypto: BTC +0.12%, ETH +0.89%; BTC.D 59.95 (–0.24%), TOTAL3 +0.54%; alt tilt.
Commodities: WTI 62.69 (-0.23%), Gold 3,314.68 (-0.04%); oil soft, hedge neutral.
Bonds & Dollar: US10Y 4.312 (~flat), DXY 98.40 (+0.12%); firmer dollar, steady curve.
Forked Feed Early Warning: “Tight ranges don’t last; they reload the spring. Time your curiosity.”
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $113386
ETH/USD: $4127
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
Real-Yield Clamp
When 10-year TIPS (real yields) rise while gold stalls and the SOX/NDX ratio (semis vs. Nasdaq) slips, capital is saying: “pay me in real terms.” That clamps equity multiples and starves high-beta.
Tactile read (clear tripwires):
De-risk: if 10-yr TIPS > its 10-day high and SOX/NDX makes a 3-day lower-low → cut cyclicals/SMID, favor cash-rich mega-caps; keep a gold hedge on.
Press risk: if 10-yr TIPS < its 10-day MA and gold closes above its 5-day high → add quality growth; allow a measured ETH sleeve.
Stand aside spike: if real-yields ±10 bps in a day and VIX > 16, expect air pockets; size down until both cool.
(Why it works: real yields re-price the denominator of every risk asset; SOX/NDX is the canary for multiple compression.)
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3313
Silver: $37.283
WTI: $62.759
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.314%
30Y: Yield: 4.90%
DXY: 98.401
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 59.91%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $1.01T
• Altseason Index 51/100 (Emerging Rotation)
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 64 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 85 (Bullish)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.672
Layer-1: SOL $180.79 | DOT $3.748 | ATOM $4.332
Layer-2: ARB $0.4864 | OP $0.697
Memes: DOGE $0.21201 | WIF $0.835 | PEPE 0.00001033
RWA: ONDO $0.9211 | NXRA $0.00945
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Alt Rotation Triangulation
Alt “seasons” aren’t seasons; they’re two-hour liquidity windows. To avoid chasing fumes, triangulate three signals at once:
ETHBTC — leadership meter
BTC Dominance (BTC.D) — capital share
TOTAL3 (crypto mkt cap ex-BTC & ETH) — breadth
Read it like this:
True rotation: ETHBTC ↑, BTC.D ↓, TOTAL3 ↑ → participate (scale into top-tier L1/L2s only).
Fake pop: ETHBTC ↑, BTC.D flat, TOTAL3 flat/↓ → ignore; it’s just reshuffle within majors.
Exhaustion: ETHBTC ↓, BTC.D ↑, TOTAL3 ↓ → exit alts, keep only BTC/flat.
One rule to operationalize: only buy alts on days when all three confirm and the move survives into the US close. If any leg fails by the close, flatten back to core.
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📌 Key Takeaways
Stocks slipped as the dollar firmed and VIX nudged higher into Powell.
Oil drifted on peace-talk chatter, muting inflation beta.
Crypto headlines stayed lively; flows stayed selective.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY > 646 reclaims momentum; < 636 risks follow-through lower.
QQQ > 578 revives tech bid; < 562 warns rotation.
BTC > 114,800 opens impulse; < 111,500 tests support.
ETH > 4,200 extends alt tilt; < 3,980 cools it fast.
Gold > 3,340 strengthens hedge; < 3,300 trims.
WTI > 64.8 relief bounce; < 61.8 extends slump.
DXY > 98.8 tightens risk; < 97.8 loosens.
US10Y > 4.35% pressures multiples; < 4.20% soothes.
VIX > 16.5 reloads hedges; < 14.8 stay long.
💬 Final Thought
This was event drift with a firmer buck. Let Jackson Hole choose the next leg: if dollar backs off and yields slip, lean into quality growth and ETH. If both firm, get smaller and let the first move burn out before you chase.
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