Dollar Drifts Under 97, ISM Ticks Up, Quarter-End Flows Keep SPY Above 617 — Market Breakdown #45
Manufacturing PMI improves to 49.0, yields steady near 4.25%, WTI deflates to $66 and Bitcoin idles at $105 K as Wall Street coasts into the mid-week.
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Issue #45 – July 1, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
ISM Manufacturing PMI rises to 49.0, still in contraction” – PR Newswire
“Factories still on treadmill, but at least the speed nudged up.”“Stocks slip, yields rise as Powell comments gauged” – Reuters
“Powell spoke, algos shrugged, tape drifted.”“Dollar dips to 96-handle on month-end flows” – Bloomberg
“Greenback forgot its cape; risk assets grabbed the beach umbrella.”“Oil edges down toward $65 on OPEC+ supply chatter” – Reuters
“Barrel sprang another leak; bulls blame OPEC group chat.”“Bitcoin holds above $105 K despite softer sentiment” – CoinCodex
“Digital gold practices plank pose, waits for ETF flows.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Manufacturing pulse: ISM PMI at 49.0 (up from 48.5) hints at stabilization, though new-orders sub-50 keeps recession whispers alive.
Yield crawl: 10-yr closes 4.246% (▲ 0.4 bp); curve little-changed as Powell reiterates data-dependence.
Equity stall: SPY 617.65 (-0.03%), QQQ 546.99 (-0.84%); still lofty but breadth cooled.
Crypto pullback: BTC 105571 (-0.18%), ETH 2394 (-0.46%); dominance steady at 65.5%.
Oil deflates: WTI 66.24 (-0.34%) as OPEC+ hints at August supply bump; energy equities lag.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $617.65
QQQ: $556.99
🧭 Risk-On Flows
SPY ≈ $140 M creations; quarter-end allocations taper.
QQQ ≈ $180 M inflow; AI names still magnet.
SPYV value flat: energy out, industrials in.
High-yield ETFs + $90 M while spreads steady.
Spot-BTC ETFs hold ≈ $102 B AUM with +$320 M net; dip bought yet again.
Flows show light but persistent risk appetite rather than flight.
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $105798.73
ETH/USD: $2410.82
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
“Dollar Downshift 2.0”
The DXY at 96.63 marks continuing low. Rather than racing into Treasuries, money redistributed across hard-asset hedges:
Gold settles $3333 (-0.15%) but outperforms crude by nearly half a percent.
Bitcoin sticks above 105 K even as TOTAL-3 cap slips; institutions still favor flagship digital collateral.
Oil loses premium at $66; hedgers prefer metal & crypto over barrels when the dollar slides.
Takeaway: sovereignty bids are selective; portable stores of value > cyclical commodities on a weak-USD tape.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3332.675
Silver: $36.102
WTI: $66.317
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.246%
30Y: Yield: 4.78%
DXY: 96.631
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 65.46%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $819 B
• Altseason Index 26/100 (Bitcoin season)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.664
Layer-1: SOL $147.82 | DOT $3.292 | ATOM $3.959
Layer-2: ARB $0.3278 | OP $0.538
Memes: DOGE $0.15869 | WIF $0.795 | PEPE 0.000000933
RWA: ONDO $0.7468 | NXRA $0.00870
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 64 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 70 (Bullish)
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Friday-Holiday Drift
When Independence Day lands on a Friday, as it does this year, the tape usually coasts higher into the long weekend rather than slipping. Over the past 25 years the S&P has posted a modest ~0.3% uptick on the Thursday before the holiday, while tech’s QQQ averages a slightly bigger pop as desks square books. Liquidity is thin, which magnifies any late-day buy programs, but realized volatility tends to stay muted until trading resumes the following Monday. Bitcoin often grabs a small bid (about half a percent) as weekend positioning migrates to 24/7 venues. In short: pre-holiday flows lean upward on Thursday, then go flat-line until the first full session after July 4.
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📌 Key Takeaways
Factory data hints at bottoming; market reaction muted.
Dollar weakness allows equities to stay near highs despite tech fade.
Oil continues to underperform; hedgers rotate to gold & BTC.
ETF flows positive but lighter; holiday vacuum in effect.
Watch Wednesday half-day and Thursday’s NFP for next catalyst.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY above 620 refreshes trend; under 615 risks rotation.
QQQ reclaim 550 to regain mojo; < 545 invites mean-revert.
BTC hold 105 K; > 108 K reignites upside, < 103 K warns chop.
DXY rebound > 98 caps risk; slip < 96 fuels reflation.
WTI must find floor > 65; slide < 63 darkens energy outlook.
💬 Final Thought
With fireworks queued for the sky, not the tape, liquidity will dry up fast. Protect profits, trim size, and let Thursday’s jobs data dictate the post-holiday play. Trade clear, trade calm.
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