CPI inline but still running hot, Dow breaks 46K, gold hedges, crypto mixed — Market Breakdown #91
August CPI came in hotter, matching consensus but higher than July. Equities shrugged, gold steady, crypto hesitant.
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Issue #91 – September 11, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
US CPI rises 0.4% in August, YoY at 2.9%—higher than July, matching forecasts. Reuters
Forked Feed: “Inflation’s like your ex being back again, not worse than feared, but still annoying.”Dow tops 46,000 for the first time despite hotter CPI. WSJ
Forked Feed: “Dow’s like ‘inflation, shminflation, I’m climbing anyway.’”Gold edges higher as CPI reinforces hedge demand. Economic Times
Forked Feed: “Shiny rock still the adult in the room when CPI runs hot.”Dollar firmed, yields ticked up after CPI. Bloomberg
Forked Feed: “Greenback flexed after inflation told it to hit the gym.”Bitcoin trades around $116k post-CPI as markets parse macro. Barron’s
Forked Feed: “BTC: too early to moon, too stubborn to bust.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Funding / Dollar / Rates: CPI hotter but not a shock. Fed cut odds cool a bit, but expectations remain for easing later this year. Dollar and yields nudged higher.
Equities: Dow broke 46,000 anyway, with SPY/QQQ higher; equities chose momentum over macro fear.
Metals/Energy: Gold held near $3,640, silver up; oil still soft, detached from the macro move.
Crypto: BTC hovered around $116k; ETH firm; alts mild green but BTC dominance stable.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $657.63
QQQ: $584
🧭 Risk-On Flows
Equities: SPY 657.63 (+0.83%), QQQ 584.08 (+0.58%), VIX 14.71 (-4.17%) — new highs, vol cratered.
Crypto: BTC 115,928 (+0.38%), ETH 4,528 (+1.51%), BTC.D 58.14 (-0.22%), TOTAL3 $1.12T (+0.67%).
Commodities: Gold 3,640.9 (+0.21%), Silver 41.57 (+0.17%), WTI 62.32 (-0.37%).
Bonds & Dollar: 10Y 4.03% (+0.01%), TYX 4.65 (-0.58%), DXY 97.61 (+0.12%).
Forked Feed Early Warning: “Equities hitting records while CPI runs hotter is like throwing a house party next to a fire alarm.”
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $115407
ETH/USD: $4500
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
Hotter CPI + firm yields + firmer dollar = cautious beta window. Gold steady says hedge demand alive; equities ignoring inflation is momentum-driven, not fundamental.
Tactile read:
If SPY > 657 and 10Y ≤ 4.10%, longs in tech still playable.
If DXY > 99 or VIX > 17, cut beta.
If BTC > 116k and BTC.D dips, rotate into strong alts. Lose 113k? Range mode.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3646
Silver: $41.917
WTI: $62.251
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.030%
30Y: Yield: 4.65%
DXY: 97.608
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 58.14%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $1.11T
• Altseason Index 58/100 (early alt season stirring, but no break out yet)
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 55 (Neutral)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 97 (Bullish)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.671
Layer-1: SOL $232.02 | DOT $4.253 | ATOM $4.703
Layer-2: ARB $0.5313 | OP $0.7892
Memes: DOGE $0.25967 | WIF $0.919 | PEPE 0.00001067
RWA: ONDO $1.1031 | NXRA $0.00788
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
Consensus ≠ Comfort
Even when CPI hits forecasts, if it’s higher than last month, the market feels the heat. That mismatch between consensus met and trend direction creates tactical whiplash—stocks may cheer while hedges (gold, bonds) quietly prepare.
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📌 Key Takeaways
CPI came in hotter than July, matching forecasts, still sticky.
Dow broke 46,000 anyway, equities chose momentum.
Gold remains steady near highs; hedge still demanded.
BTC stable, ETH strong, alts stirring but no broad season.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY (~657): Momentum > 660; cautious < 652
QQQ (~584): Bullish > 590; fade < 580
BTC (~116k): Impulse > 117.5k; range < 113k
ETH (~4,528): Alts-on > 4,650; stall < 4,300
Gold (~3,641): Hedge > 3,700; trim < 3,600
DXY (~97.6): Squeeze > 99; relief < 97
10Y (~4.03%): Pressure > 4.2%; relief < 4.0%
VIX (~14.7): Hedge reload > 17; longs safe < 15
💬 Final Thought
CPI was hotter than last month, consensus met, but direction matters. Equities shrugged it off for now; momentum is king. But hedges haven’t left the room. Respect the tape, trade the retests, and don’t let greed blind you to the heat.
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