Chips wobble, dollar firms, BTC sneaks higher — Market Breakdown #71
Semis digest a China revenue-share twist as the dollar perks up and Bitcoin bids ahead of CPI.
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Issue #71 – August 11, 2025
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🔥 Headlines & Hysteria (powered by Forked Feed)
Wall Street ends lower as CPI looms and China trade clouds linger — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Everyone prepped for math class, then remembered semis brought extra homework.”U.S. chipmakers face 15% China revenue skim to keep licenses — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Paywall for exports, courtesy of Uncle Sam. Margins met a toll booth.”Dollar edges up ahead of CPI and tariff deadline — Reuters
Forked Feed: “The buck did a little plank. Not ripped, just firm.”Oil settles flat as markets eye U.S.–Russia talks — Reuters
Forked Feed: “Peace rumor in, risk premium out. Barrels took a breather.”
🎭 Tape Theater
“Growth tiptoed, funding flexed, barrels yawned. Chips argued with policy, Bitcoin slipped past the rope line.”
🔎 Today’s Focus — What Moved the Tape
Funding stayed firm while stocks softened: US10Y 4.283% and DXY 98.51 edged up as SPY 635.92 and QQQ 572.85 faded. That mix says pre-CPI positioning, not new risk appetite.
Vol perked up into the print: VIX 16.25 rose 7.3% even with only mild index declines, a tell that hedges went on and dealer short-vol eased.
Crypto quietly decoupled: ETH 4,279 up 1.3%, BTC 119,024 up 0.23%, BTC.D lower at 60.58. Flows rotated toward higher beta while Bitcoin kept the floor.
Hard-asset split, inflation message muted: Gold up at 3,349.80, WTI flat to softer at 64.27. Hedge demand showed up without a growth impulse from energy.
Setup for tomorrow: Cooler CPI likely knocks DXY lower and boosts duration plus QQQ. A hot print with US10Y above 4.35% and VIX above 17.5 tilts the board to defense.
🧭 Top Charts of the Week
SPY: $637.18
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QQQ: $572.85
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🧭 Risk-On Flows
Equities: SPY 635.92 (–0.20%), QQQ 572.85 (-0.30%); soft drift into CPI.
Crypto: BTC 119,024 (+0.23%), ETH 4,279 (+1.30%), BTC.D 60.58 (-0.25%); ETH outperformed.
Commodities: Gold 3,349.8 (+0.22%), WTI 64.27 (-0.11%); hedge metals modestly bid, oil flat.
Bonds & Dollar: US10Y 4.283% (+0.09%), DXY 98.511 (+0.01%), VIX 16.25 (+7.26%); a cautious lean.
₿ Bitcoin & Crypto
BTC/USD: $119063
ETH/USD: $4272.50
🧭 Sovereignty Signal
FX-Curve Balance Test
When the dollar firms into CPI while the 10-year refuses to break higher decisively, capital is hedging headline risk without abandoning duration. That mix favors quality cash-generators over high-beta leverage.
Sovereignty Signal — Tactile
If DXY > 99.0 and US10Y > 4.35%, cut beta and keep gold on.
If DXY < 98.0 with US10Y < 4.20%, expand risk in quality growth and BTC.
🏅 Commodities / Gold / Silver / Oil
Gold: $3352.51
Silver: $37.808
WTI: $64.36
🧮 Rates / Bonds / Dollar
10Y Yield: 4.281%
30Y: Yield: 4.84%
DXY: 98.475
🔄 Altcoin Market Overview
🔢 Key Metrics
• BTC Dominance 60.57%
• TOTAL3 ≈ $1.03T
• Altseason Index 39/100 (Emerging Rotation)
📉 Sector Breakdown
AI: AGIX $0.5938 | FET $0.698
Layer-1: SOL $176.27 | DOT $3.902 | ATOM $4.524
Layer-2: ARB $0.4449 | OP $0.763
Memes: DOGE $0.22543 | WIF $0.924 | PEPE 0.00001130
RWA: ONDO $0.9947 | NXRA $0.00947
🧠 Sentiment Snapshot
Fear-&-Greed (crypto): 68 (Greed)
CoinCodex Sentiment: 100 (Bullish)
🧠 Concept Spotlight:
License Friction
Export certainty with revenue skims is not neutral. It converts geopolitical risk into a quasi-tax on future cash flows. The market will re-rate by product mix and China exposure, not by blanket sector moves.
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⚙️ Edge Drill
Before the CPI print, tag each open position with a single fail level you will execute without debate. Write the number, place the order, close the tab.
📌 Key Takeaways
Chip export rules swapped uncertainty for a margin toll, capping leadership.
Dollar and yields inched up together, keeping risk honest into CPI.
Oil’s conflict premium faded, easing near-term inflation nerves.
BTC firmed into data, with structural demand still the tailwind.
📅 Watchlist & Triggers
SPY > 640 reasserts momentum; < 628 risks a deeper swing.
QQQ > 578 confirms tech bid; < 565 warns rotation.
BTC > 120,000 keeps the grind; < 116,500 invites a flush.
ETH > 4,350 extends alt strength; < 4,120 cools the bid.
Gold > 3,380 strengthens hedge; < 3,320 trims.
WTI > 65.5 relief bounce; < 63.5 extends drift.
DXY > 99.0 tightens risk; < 98.0 loosens.
US10Y > 4.35% pressures multiples; < 4.20% soothes.
VIX > 17.5 raises guard; < 15.5 relaxes.
💬 Final Thought
Into CPI, trade thresholds, not vibes. If funding eases on the print, lean into quality growth and ETH follow-through. If DXY pops and the 10-year jumps, get smaller and let the first move exhaust before you act.
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